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An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances

papers articles scientific paper paper core planned

Creators

  • Thomas Bayes, author
  • Richard Price, editor

Canon Rationale

A core probability paper, included for inverse probability, Bayesian inference's historical source, and the long intellectual history of reasoning under uncertainty.

Evidence

  • citation context: Bayes and Price, 'An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances,' Philosophical Transactions, 1763.
  • handbook: Encyclopaedia Britannica, 'Thomas Bayes'.

Audit Flags

version dependency, epistemic status required

Completion unit: read the full 1763 essay, with enough context to separate the historical text from later Bayesian statistics.

Reading Lists